The right to protest

So Thailand is back making global political headlines again - can you say it ever stopped though? This time the spotlight in on the Thaksin Shinawatra supporting Red Shirts, rivals in chief to the PAD mob.

It was the PAD who, back in December, opened my eyes to the right to protest, Thai style, when they rolled into Suvarnbhumi airport en mass to protest against then acting Prime Minsiter Somchai Wongsawat - believing him to be a puppet of Thaksin. Eventually Chaovarat gave in to the pressure, a new Prime Minsiter was chosen, all was happy ever after and we come to the present day...

The protesters are the Reds with their Truth Today campaign. The object of their protestations is Prime Minsiter Abhisit Vejjajiva and their objective is his resignation and an election.

The Red Shirts are pushing for change in Thailand.

Those are the basic facts distilled down for simplicity's sake. In what seems to a quickly establishing hallmark of Thai democracy, the anti-Abhisit Reds have taken to the streets of Bangkok to apply their pressure.

Around 2/3 weeks ago Red Shirts began their occupation of land near Government House. Their presence escalated today when a group of taxis drivers - an industry known for its unwavering support for exiled, former PM Thaksin - parked cabs to abstruct all entrances to Victory Monument, one of central Bangkok's busiest transport hubs.

It's inevitable, when you look at it. The Yellow Shirts (PAD) got what they wanted by causing chaos and closing the national airport so the Reds (significantly made up of a strong presence outside of Bangkok) took this marker and went for the heart of the capital - closing roads and massively inconveniencing the city.

This evening Abhisit addressed Thailand with a national TV broadcast in which he stood his ground by refusing to resign. He warned that the government would proceed with legal action against anyone deemed to be acting against national security.

PM Abhisit owes his very position to a protest

He is deadly serious but there is an irony about Abhisit and his statement of legal action which will be lost on few. 

To this date, no arrests have been made in connection with the PAD's occupation of the airport which led to his appointment as PM. Surely closing the national airport is detrimental to national security?!

Yet no arrests and no come uppance for the PAD protestors.

To me this is clearly the crux of the problem, and one of the justifications for the Red Shirts..."the Yellows got what they wanted and suffered no consequences, why should we?"

The right protest is an essential part of democracy but it is has grown out of control in Thailand.

For the sake of the nation a compromise must be found and actions must be taken to strongly discourage such protests in the future. If this sets the standard the retaliatory protests may never stop.

At this stage it is difficult to see who will win out - The Reds or Abhisit? The one hope is that things don't get ugly.

Now that's an awful lotta people

This article from The Nation today...

"Tourism Minister Weerasak Kowsurat said the number of stranded tourists have risen to 240,000."

In true Match Of The Day (MOTD) style, that's 240,000 (two hundred and forty thousand).

UPDATE: it's been confirmed that the PAD has ceased its occupation of Government House in Bangkok, it is believed to be mobilising all supporters to concerntrate on its efforts to gather at either Don Muang or Suvarnabhumi airports.

Full story

Thailand: world's top 20 most dangerous places?

The Telegraph has included Thailand in an article on "20 places which are among the most dangerous places to visit on Earth" [what a poorly written phrase], full entry for Thailand below.

Thailand
Major political demonstrations and a temporary state of emergency have affected both of Bangkok’s airports. The area around Government House and nearby Ratchadamnoen “Nok” Road, including the area around Metropolitan Police headquarters and Parliament should be avoided. Fighting also broke out last month on the Cambodian border at Preah Vihear and tensions remain high. Civil unrest and frequent attacks continue in the southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and Songkhla – the Foreign Office advises against all but essential travel to these areas.

So Thailand apparently enjoys a peer group which includes Iraq, Afghanistan, Burundi, The Congo, Zimbabwe, Lebanon...I could go on...

Thailand is no where near comparable to these places, the article is incredibly misleading. I am fully against the PAD but there is no immediate danger to tourists, assuming none try to tackle the situation directly. The problem, read 'danger', lies in the uncertainty behind the airport closes - it could be open tomorrow, or could stay closed for 2008...nobody knows.

The situation is now a stalemate between the Prime Minister, who cannot be seen to give in to the demands of the mob, and a (minority) mob that truly has nothing to lose and is hell-bent one thing alone - forcing the PM to resign.

With my Western hat on it seems impossible that this will go on any longer, but I'm quickly learning that Thailand is a law unto itself. Stranded tourists are finding ways to get out and get home but in defusing the situation it may become sustainable and longterm, causing Thailand to suffer massively (BoT has predicted a 40% drop in tourism should the airports now open until next year).

With the armed forces and police refusing to move in (the protestors are made up of families, with many women and children - see here for more) the immediate future is unclear but the damage to Thailand's tourism reputation continues to show no sign of abating.

Hat tip to The BANGKOK BUGLE for the article and taking the obvious headline.

Begining To Count The Cost Of The Crisis

A story in FT Asia this morning has begun to put a price on the PAD action this week, bearing in mind also that it is still ongoing.

"One minister has estimated that it could cost the country $2.8bn in lost revenue, a further blow to an economy already reeling from the fallout from the global economic crisis."

As I mentioned on Wednesday this situation has the potential to become extremely catastrophic from the country tourism industry, which is already struggling.

The first major story of tourists cancelling trips has been reporting as The Bangkok Post reports that "German package-holiday companies cancelled holiday departures on Thursday for 1,200 Germans because Suvarnabhumi international airport remains occupied".

The country and its tourism industry is praying the situation can be remedied swiftly and peacefully.

UPDATE: Bank of Thailand has conservatively predicted that foreign tourist arrivals are likely to fall by 3.5 million (40%) next year if the closure of Suvarnabhumi Airport and current political crisis drags on until the year-end. Courtesy of Bangkok Post.

Bangkok Airport chaos

The latest acts of rioting from the PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) has caused chaos in Bangkok forcing the closure of the city's main airport, Suvarnabhumi, and cancellation of all outgoing flights and severe limitations on incoming planes.

The chaos all began when a group of PAD protestors baracaded the motorway turn off the Suvarnabumi airport. Quickly the scene became congested with PAD suppoters and rioters arriving in masses, TV cameras showed scenes of vandalism and violence as PAD supporters ran amok smashing property, burning cars, hijacking a public bus and threatening media and passers by.

In light of the global recession, the timing of the airport closure could not have been worse as Thailand's tourist communtiy is already suffering from inflated air travel prices. Its reputation as a holiday destination has been dented by the continuing political instabilities, including a recent baracade, and temporary closure, of the British Embassy in Bangkok. Tourists will now undoubtedly question whether a trip to Thailand is worth the increasingly costly investment with this latest bout of instability.

It's belived that the PAD has staged this latest exhibition of protest in an attempt to force a coup before the country's King's birthday on 5 December. Political coups are not new to this land, September 2006 saw the Army storm Government House and the state-run Channel 11, in a move that saw former Prime Minster Thaksin Shinawatra flee to the UK.

Further reading at Bangkok Post.

Update: I'll further explain the PAD and it's position in Thailand's political horizon soon